It’s 1st Nov 2025 and yet another year of great returns comes to an end. At the start of this year, I had predicted that 2025 might be a red year for stock markets across the globe but I was proven wrong (so far, still 2 months to go).
2025 YTD Returns:
- India (Nifty50): 8.33%
- US (S&P500): 16.48%
- UK (FTSE100): 17.56%
- Japan (Nikkei 225): 33.46%
- China (SSE Composite): 21.68%
As can be seen from the data above, stock markets are far from even flat returns, let alone a hard crash.
Fear in the market
Currently, I can sense that there is a general sense of fear in the market. Everyone is expecting a crash and the main reason is the so called “AI Bubble“. From business TV hosts to YouTube finfluencers, everyone is suggesting that the AI bubble is about to burst and a big crash is just around the corner.
In addition to the AI bubble, there are other factors suggesting an incoming crash:
- Gold is rising like crazy – indicating investors are stocking up safe haven assets
- US trade and tariff uncertainty – indicating global downturn because of trade issues
- Geopolitical tensions – war in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, China-Hong Kong
- Warren Buffet selling – Berkshire is hold all time high cash pile of $300B
While all these are valid concerns but that does not tell us when exactly would the highly anticipated stock market crash happen.
My Outlook
I feel stock markets will continue to rise for the next 2-3 years. My main reason is because the general sentiment currently is fear and when everyone is fearful and talking about crashes, markets usually do the opposite and continue to rally for extended periods even at crazy high valuations. The last leg of upside is usually the greatest and steepest.
People are comparing 2025 AI bubble to the 2000 dot-com bubble. To me 2025 feels more like 1998 than 2000. Everyone was talking about crazy high valuations and the dot-com bubble since 1997-98 but the markets continued to rise till 2000. Everyone who shorted or stayed on the sidelines lost a major portion of the rally. Similarly, I feel markets will continue to climb up at crazy and absurd valuations and leave everyone astonished for the next 2-3 years.
Here’s what I think:
- The next big crash will happen around late 2028 or 2029. The main reason is psychology since 2029 will mark the 100 years anniversary of the 1929 market crash.
- 2028 US Presidential election – Trump will be in power till late 2028 and the next election will happen in Nov 2028 so till then he will keep pumping the market.
- Asian markets bull run – Japan, China and India will have a massive bull run for the next 5-10 years as US markets might slow down. It’s going to be there shining decade.
- US will lead innovation – As much as people are talking about the AI bubble, I think US will still continue to lead the global tech race because of it’s massive MAG7 companies investing power and brain power because of great universities.
My Plan for 2025-2028
- In early 2025, I have started investing in leveraged index ETFs across major regions:
- US Nasdaq 2x – 40%
- India Nifty 2x – 30%
- China Composite 2x – 20%
- Japan Nikkei 2x – 10%
- My goal is to continue doing so till I reach a portfolio of $150-200K. I will then treat this portfolio as a separate asset and leave it alone without touching it for the next 5-7 years.
- May be I’ll rebalance it to give more allocation to Asian countries and reduce US allocation.
- On the side, I will start accumulating 1x index ETFs of the same countries.
- I am also building positions in India mutual funds across all mcap companies and momentum indices.
My Plan for the 2029 crash
When the crash comes it will be sudden and unexpected. Markets will shock everyone and won’t give much time to derisk and sell. My plan is to start lowering stock positions around mid 2028 and hold a good amount of liquid cash in bonds. This way I will be prepared to deploy the cash back into the market when the crash happens. I won’t wait to bottom fish, instead I will start deploying once the market is down to 25%+.
The purpose of writing this post is to serve as a personal investment policy that I can refer to over the next 3-5 years. It will also help me to believe in my outlook and stay the course amidst all the doomsday scenarios being discussed in the media.
Refer the investment advice and tips given in the book The Uncertainty Solution to stay the course.
